Olympic Medal Prediction via Adaptive Triple-Fusion: Combining AAC Model with ARIMA-State Space Dynamics
Authors：Wei Li, Zixin Wang, Qixiang Gao, Fenglei Yang*
Published in：CAMMIC 2025 (EI Indexed Conference), Full Paper (Poster Presentation).
Email：liwei008009@163.com
This poster presents a novel approach to predicting Olympic medal tallies using an Adaptive Triple-Fusion (AAS) model, which combines the AAC (senior Athlete-new Athlete-Country) model with ARIMA-State Space dynamics. The research integrates athlete dynamics and national trends, achieving a mean error rate of less than 5% for major nations in the 2024 Olympics. The framework leverages measure-theoretic probability and hierarchical Bayesian modeling to ensure robust predictions and interpretability.